Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Ezra Klein Nails My Thesis Exactly

One gripe. He says this could either be a Civil War or a complete capitulation by the establishment. Either way its the same thing: it will tear the party apart.
Last week, Politico reported that Mitch McConnell was quietly meeting with incoming senators to talk them out of banning earmarks. "Eliminating earmarks would effectively cede Congress’ spending authority to the White House while not making a real dent in the $1 trillion-plus budget deficit," he argued. That pitted him in opposition to Jim DeMint and the Tea Parties, both of whom had made the elimination of earmarks a central priority. 
Yesterday, McConnell waved the white flag. "Make no mistake," he said. "I know the good that has come from the projects I have helped support throughout my state. I don’t apologize for them." But "unless people like me show the American people that we’re willing to follow through on small or even symbolic things, we risk losing them on our broader efforts to cut spending and rein in government."
The big news here is not earmarks, however, which are, as McConnell says, "small or even symbolic things," but the glimpse into the dynamics of the incoming Republican legislators. Jim DeMint and the conservative base hold a lot of influence. At this point, it's not yet clear that McConnell and the Republican establishment -- many of whom were defeated in primaries over the course of the election -- can counter them. Some have warned that will lead to civil war in the Republican Party, but it could also lead to an exhausted capitulation by the old guard -- much as we saw from McConnell yesterday. If that happens, if the moderating influence of the veterans is not just rejected but actively extinguished, we're going to see a much more ideologically hardline and legislatively unpredictable Republican Conference than most have been predicting.
If you don't read Ezra on a regular basis, you should.

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